Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 12.102442 13.852718 15.737460 17.914236 20.355197 23.004096 26.092308
2025-06-22 9.687996 12.096327 14.889569 18.353547 22.517744 27.345361 33.347515
2025-06-29 8.191668 10.824328 14.027829 18.184867 23.405400 29.710549 37.864397
2025-07-06 6.733183 9.381512 12.751025 17.309674 23.266732 30.731695 40.730660
2025-07-13 6.117763 8.907522 12.590007 17.744855 24.701464 33.681040 46.050374
2025-07-20 5.577198 8.457878 12.391332 18.071575 25.964121 36.426766 51.204211
2025-07-27 5.005068 7.891396 11.961526 18.014395 26.657766 38.403325 55.381407
2025-08-03 4.472370 7.320354 11.462086 17.795840 27.076685 39.985180 59.051722
2025-08-10 4.075511 6.908423 11.148159 17.801429 27.784403 41.967638 63.332567
2025-08-17 3.770351 6.605299 10.963749 17.969901 28.715795 44.284708 68.163180
2025-08-24 3.453377 6.250235 10.665418 17.931789 29.317402 46.128542 72.363566
2025-08-31 3.148697 5.884526 10.316912 17.780945 29.721053 47.676106 76.167495
2025-09-07 2.926908 5.644279 10.159417 17.933655 30.620590 50.035892 81.338915
2025-09-14 2.792541 5.544099 10.224021 18.448235 32.116573 53.370058 88.135217
2025-09-21 2.547162 5.219203 9.880068 18.252726 32.442165 54.884215 92.160870
2025-09-28 2.218853 4.707669 9.170961 17.383355 31.599506 54.500802 93.173644
2025-10-05 2.122574 4.627087 9.216008 17.817051 32.950037 57.672681 99.948890
2025-10-12 2.018542 4.520917 9.204858 18.146070 34.131683 60.609491 106.447264
2025-10-19 1.871039 4.313037 8.988713 18.088289 34.633558 62.436777 111.191319
2025-10-26 1.716564 4.075253 8.696848 17.869071 34.832485 63.754967 115.129187
2025-11-02 1.602376 3.910881 8.532854 17.874633 35.426170 65.755096 120.269783
2025-11-09 1.515575 3.797094 8.458897 18.043738 36.319161 68.295419 126.406989
2025-11-16 1.413580 3.639442 8.284570 18.005481 36.823547 70.173445 131.467573